China, the Global Recession, and CES :: 中国, 全球经济衰退, 和消费电子产品展

Over the last few months, I've been increasingly asked about how business feels in China in light of the global economic meltdown. In particular, could it present an opportunity for Chinese companies, as much of the rest of world struggles?

Many have noted that China is somewhat more insulated, although obviously still heavily impacted by the crisis. GDP growth is forecasted to slow significantly in 2009 (from 12% to 8%) and FDI has been dropping steadily month by month. The former indicator still represents significant growth however, and the latter is a reflection of general external cautiousness more than any domestic Chinese issue.

Much of China's opportunity for success in a global recession is in markets that are less hit by the recession, which means other emerging markets (e.g., Africa) represent a real opportunity. However, these markets are generally not the targets of innovation, more an outlet for cheap products that China is already producing.

Consumer electronics is an industry in which innovations abound and is one in which Chinese companies contributions have been noted (e.g., Lenovo, Huawei). Did this year's consumer electronics showcase -- CES 2009 in Las Vegas -- shed any light on Chinese consumer electronics innovation?

Of course, CES can't answer this question fairly, as most prototypes begin development 3-6 months before the event, meaning they pre-date the beginning of the financial crisis. But a few months of crisis still offers enough time to shape a company's overall positioning and to make aspirational statements, if desired.

So in the midst of high-profile Palm Pre and Samsung Luxia excitement, how did Chinese companies fare?

Lenovo did not offer anything revolutionary, but their incremental innovations were quite nice. Their ultra-light carbon fiber-based IdeaPad line is very attractive, while their new all-in-one IdeaCentre 600 with accelerometer-based controller is a step in the right direction, although the execution occasionally fails.

Hisense's new LED TVs were the only other innovative offerings from a Chinese company, winning it some industry and media recognition.

Otherwise, Chinese products on display tended toward the unexceptional, such as Haier TVs or Changhong and Uni-V notebooks. Or toward the weird, courtesy of OEMS, such as Lightwave's projector phone using Chinese company Butterfly's technology or this furry phone.

Meanwhile, Greater China (specifically Taiwan) offered some gems. Asus had 3 of note -- the origami-esque Airo with retractable keyboard, the Eee keyboard with dedicated touch-screen, and the T-91 touchscreen tablet. BenQ's mobile internet devices -- the Linux-based S6 in particular -- were also compelling.

As a barometer of innovation potential, CES displays need to balance products that are real with prototypes that are directional. Overly emphasizing the former suggests incrementalism, while focusing on the latter is not credible. Asus, and to a lesser extent Lenovo, managed this balance. We'll see over the next 6 months whether any other Chinese brands will also manage.

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最近几个月，我常被问起在全球经济衰退的时候对中国的市场感觉如何？特别是，世界其他地区挣扎渡过经济难关的时刻，是否对中国企业来说反而是个不错的机会？

许多人都注意到，虽然中国显然也受到这次危机的严重影响，但是总体来说中国还是比其他许多市场少受到了冲击。中国2009年的预计GDP的增速明显放缓（从12%减少到8％），外商直接投资也逐月递减。但是前者的指标仍然相当高，而后者也仅是反映了外部投资总体趋于谨慎，而不是因为任何特别的中国国内因素。

在全球经济危机时大多数中国企业成功的机会来自于那些较少受到危机冲击的市场，即像非洲这样的新兴市场代表了确实的机会。但是，这些市场通常并非创新产品的首要目标市场，而更多是中国已有的廉价产品的输出地。

消费电子是创新产品层出不穷的行业，也是如联想和华为等中国公司屡屡获得瞩目的地方。今年在拉斯维加斯举办的2009年CES展会上中国的消费电子类创新产品能有更多表现吗？

当然CES并不能充分回答这个问题，因为参加这个展会的模型大多数需要3到6个月的开发时间，这意味着这些产品概念在经济危机前就已经准备好了。但危机后的这几个月仍然有足够的时间让一个公司确定其定位，准备有号召力的产品宣言。

那么，在吸引了众多眼球的Palm Pre和Samsung Luxia的同时，中国的公司表现如何？

联想没有发布任何革命性的产品，但是其循序渐进的创新产品相当不错。超轻的IdeaPad产品线很有吸引力，而新的多合一的基于加速控制器的IdeaCentre 600做出了新一步的尝试，虽然概念执行上仍有待改进。

海信新的LED电视是其他仅有的来自中国公司的创新产品，并已经赢得了业内和媒体的一些认可。

而展会上其他的中国产品则没有特别的出彩，如海尔电视或者长虹和Uni-V上网本，或者其他一些OEM厂商提出的新奇的概念，比如红蝶的手机投影技术或者是这个毛茸茸的手机。

同时，中国大陆以外的地区（尤其是台湾）推出了一些不错的概念。华硕有3件产品值得关注：键盘可折叠的有折纸美感的Airo，有触摸屏的Eee键盘，以及T-91触摸板。明基的移动互联网设备系列，特别是基于Linux的S6，格外引人注目。

作为创新潜力风向标的CES展品中有实际可上市的产品，也有方向性的概念模型。前者强调循序渐进的创新，后者却不可全信。华硕，其次还有联想，都把握了这两者间的平衡。我们还会继续关注接下来6个月是否还有其他中国品牌能做到这样实际的产品进步和长期的创新概念平衡。