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Exponential Change in the Auto Industry Defies Predictions

In order to predict the unexpected future of the ever-changing automotive market, companies need to look beyond the projected horizon to unexpected areas of innovation.

The amount of miles driven by autonomous vehicles is about to drastically increase

Right now, the autonomous mobility industry is making leaps and bounds in technological advancements. Self-driving cars are no longer the lore of sci-fi or speculation, but a viable technology to bring to market. This means over the next few years, we are bound to see more AVs on the road, and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) by AVs explode.  The real question now becomes not when do we bring these autonomous vehicles to market, but how do we bring them to market? Given the exponential rate of change in the autonomous market, what does tomorrow’s automotive industry even look like?

Given the increase in VMT, where will those miles come from?

Just because we know that VMT will rise for AVs, doesn’t mean we know what form those miles will take. Many of today’s initial autonomous models follow “Pay to Use” or “Pay to Own” models. While there may be value in these tried and true models, they only just begin to scratch the surface of what’s possible when we take into account how rapidly customer expectations are changing and adjacent industries are evolving. As we’ve seen with other innovative markets, making projections into the exponential future by looking to past or current models does not always work.

An area of opportunity exists just beyond our current projection, the trick is uncovering it

To create break-through concepts that exist in the innovation space, we can’t rely on previous experience alone. We must challenge the natural tendency to use linear thinking in order to start building the auto industry of tomorrow, today. 

To find out more about how frog helps our clients prepare for the unexpected future of Autonomous Mobility, download the insight report here:

 

frog

frog is a global design and strategy firm. We transform businesses at scale by creating systems of brand, product and service that deliver a distinctly better experience. We strive to touch hearts and move markets. Our passion is to transform ideas into realities. We partner with clients to anticipate the future, evolve organizations and advance the human experience.

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